Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.710073 2.897460 3.098308 3.330823 3.594152 3.885023 4.233284
2025-03-02 2.424670 2.674061 2.956180 3.303070 3.724066 4.226665 4.885370
2025-03-09 2.239412 2.521456 2.852438 3.277163 3.819729 4.507974 5.480452
2025-03-16 2.111467 2.415914 2.783651 3.272158 3.923632 4.795111 6.115184
2025-03-23 2.030062 2.355924 2.759802 3.313585 4.082716 5.166618 6.930880
2025-03-30 1.925711 2.257495 2.676404 3.264315 4.106222 5.341878 7.475024
2025-04-06 1.835004 2.169507 2.598537 3.212847 4.116571 5.492629 8.003762
2025-04-13 1.741460 2.071958 2.500866 3.124411 4.060981 5.529090 8.332934
2025-04-20 1.701827 2.042536 2.491979 3.159519 4.192506 5.882474 9.343425
2025-04-27 1.675646 2.028954 2.502852 3.222525 4.371942 6.342496 10.717245
2025-05-04 1.649756 2.013887 2.509902 3.279071 4.545464 6.820015 12.318678
2025-05-11 1.599927 1.963324 2.463328 3.249418 4.570303 7.020040 13.320194
2025-05-18 1.554802 1.918184 2.423334 3.228911 4.611848 7.266773 14.588480
2025-05-25 1.511454 1.873756 2.382137 3.203544 4.642096 7.496339 15.939253
2025-06-01 1.471482 1.832421 2.343324 3.179035 4.670792 7.727407 17.444062
2025-06-08 1.439522 1.801179 2.317866 3.174290 4.735073 8.050030 19.522585
2025-06-15 1.420950 1.788318 2.319176 3.213653 4.887051 8.610944 23.124420
2025-06-22 1.382181 1.744676 2.271546 3.166838 4.864824 8.739029 24.901515
2025-06-29 1.345096 1.702336 2.224263 3.117907 4.833882 8.840230 26.689624
2025-07-06 1.301509 1.649246 2.158551 3.033769 4.724466 8.716542 27.106193
2025-07-13 1.287741 1.639694 2.160122 3.067181 4.860991 9.291528 32.814219
2025-07-20 1.280602 1.639598 2.176283 3.127110 5.060243 10.104756 42.682504
2025-07-27 1.272258 1.637312 2.188691 3.180862 5.252867 10.967593 57.425645